The potential for trans-Tasman cooperation

Stop right there – it doesn’t bear thinking about.

But the potential for our trans-Tasman nations to work more closely together to face the world is a topic which deserves serious consideration.

Next month, I will be co-presenting a panel discussion with Business New Zealand chief executive Phil O’Reilly at the New Zealand-Australia Investment Forum in Auckland.

While I’ll be looking at trends in population, employment and education across our two economies, Phil O’Reilly will talk about the value proposition of a closer trans-Tasman alignment.

To my mind, it’s a sign of maturity within our trans-Tasman relationship that a conference of this type is exploring the ways New Zealand and Australia can co-operate as we try to find our way in the 21st century.

Putting aside our trans-Tasman rivalries, Aussies and Kiwis consider ourselves to be fairly similar. This is particularly true when we compare our lifestyle, outlook and quality of life with the rest of the world.

But data also shows some significant differences in the characteristics of our populations.

New Zealand has a much larger indigenous population. Maori make up about 15 per cent of New Zealand’s population, while aboriginal people are two and a half per cent of Australia’s population.

This means the influence of Maori on New Zealand’s demographic statistics is more pronounced (particularly when coupled with the significant Pacific Island community), leading to data which shows the New Zealand population to be slightly more youthful, with a higher fertility rate, than Australia’s.

The obvious difference

Perhaps the most obvious difference between our two nations is a matter of scale. New Zealand has a population of a little over 4 million, with a labour force of 2.15m. Australia has a population of 22 million, with a labour force of 10.9 million. 

Projections from the US Bureau of Census' International Data Bank of 227 countries show that, by 2050, New Zealand’s population will have grown to 5 million, while Australia’s headcount will have ballooned to 34 million.

But even those additional 12 million Aussies won’t be enough to stop Australia slipping from its 2009 ranking of 55th largest population, to 59th.

It’s an outlook shared with many other developed countries, such as Italy, Canada, and Sweden, which are all expected to see their influence dwindle in coming decades.

At present, Australia punches above its weight, boasting the 14th largest economy in the world in US dollar terms (according to 2008 World Bank figures released late last year).

But, as developing countries grow and realise their potential, Australia will start to move down these rankings; that’s inevitable.

New Zealand, on the other hand, holds a much more modest spot in the population table, at 124th, and is projected to climb to 121st by 2050. In terms of the size of its economy, New Zealand sits at 53rd in the World Bank’s GDP ratings in US dollar terms, just ahead of Peru and Kuwait.